Widening Fighter Capabilities Gap at the Top for India vis-a-vis Arch Rivals

As India scrambles to produce and induct enough of its indigenously developed & produced Tejas 4+ generation fighter jets into the squadrons of the Indian Air Force as a replacement for the obsolete MiG-21 Bison jets, after also procuring 36 Dassault Rafales from France earlier, a heated contest is underway to match the rapid build-up of fighter capabilities by its neighbors and arch-rivals, namely, China & Pakistan. Operating with just 30 aircraft squadrons, as against, a sanctioned strength of 42 fighter squadrons to meet a two-front war requirement, the IAF is exploring all options to get to its requisite numerical strength as soon as possible.

However, what also needs and deserves the attention of Indian Defense Planners is the quickly widening capabilities of fighter jets between India and its neighbors, namely, China and Pakistan. China's focus over the past few years has been to ramp-up the production of its flagship stealthy 5th generation fighter, namely, the J-20 Mighty Dragon, of which, it has been able to so far induct around 200 jets into active service with some of these even deployed in Tibet, within a sniffing distance of Northern India. China's ramp-up of production rate of the J-20 to 100 now from 30 earlier means that China would be in a position to induct around 800 J-20s into the PLAAF by the end of the current decade which will be a serious challenge for India to match given that India's indigenous 5th generation fighter, being developed under the AMCA program, is still at the design stage and it is likely to enter service only by 2035 by which time China's fleet strength of the J-20 is projected to reach almost 1500 jets (at current production rates).

Further, China is also producing its second 5th generation stealth fighter, the J-31B, based on the FC-31 platform and equivalent of the American F-35. The J-20 & J-31B, thus, would be China's twin-jet 5th Gen fighter force structure equivalent of the U.S.' F-22 & the F-35. Further, in January 2024, India's bitter rival Pakistan announced the decision to procure the FC-31 from China and latest media reports indicate that the Pakistan Air Force pilots are already receiving training in China to fly the FC-31s. The emerging regional landscape, thus, poses a serious threat to India with China holding a definite edge, in terms, of a clear overmatch in fleet strength as well as superior capabilities of its 5th-gen fighters while Pakistan, too, is going towards 5th gen fighters.

India has so far responded with off-the shelf procurement of Dassault Rafale from France, which, at best, is a 4.5+ generation platform devoid of stealth, internal weapons bays and supercruise capabilities characteristic of 5th gen fighters. India, thus, will have to chart an accelerated pathway towards acquiring 5th gen fighter capability to match its neighbors at the earliest. The options available to India, however, are limited as currently there are only 3 nations which have in-production 5th gen fighters, namely, the U.S., Russia and China with none of the European nations, including, France having their own 5th gen fighter as almost the entire West has gone for the F-35 as an interim fielding solution, until the 6th gen fighters take over in the mid to late 2030s, with almost 400 F-35s already in active service across Europe. However, India can't lay its hands on the F-35s as it already operates the Russian S-400 Triumph air defense system and the U.S. does not want any nation to be able to operate both the S-400 and the F-35 with Turkey already being a clear example which was kicked out of the F-35 program despite of being an industrial partner on it due to its decision to buy the S-400 earlier.

The only option left for India, thus, is the old & trusted ally, Russia. India did explore the formation of a JV for the joint production of the Su-57 'Felon' fighter in India, however, the project didn't gain much traction as the IAF pointed towards potential deficiencies of the Su-57, including, a sizable radar cross section, which would have offered limited stealth capability, besides the inability of the jet to supercruise owing to limited engine thrust. The Russians, however, have addressed those limitations by now and are more than willing to offer the Su-57 to India and other allies, especially since its war on Ukraine, which has subjected it to Western sanctions.

The Russian defense industrial base, however, is currently bogged down and is almost under the pump to meet the requirements of the Ukraine war while also continuing its R&D efforts against the West. Russia's own production of the Su-57 so far has been below the expected rates, following the award of a procurement contract for 76 Su-57s by the Russian MoD originally in 2019, with the Su-57 program is expected to reach its full-rate production of 15 jets annually in 2024 and the Russians eagerly scouting export deals for it, thus, won't mind setting up a FAL in India with full tech transfer to India, which, in turn, will be a win-win for both sides. Further, Sukhoi also unveiled its second 5th gen fighter jet, in the form of Su-75 Checkmate, in 2021 followed by a redesigned variant in 2023. Positioned as a cost effective, single-engine, stealthy 5th gen fighter designed to operate in tandem with the Su-57; the Su-75 has the operating specs of the F-35 while offering a lower sticker price as well as operating costs.

India, thus; faced with a serious & imminent two-front security threat and a rapidly widening 5th gen fighter capability gap; needs to take the best possible call as quickly as possible to beef-up its overall numerical strength in fighters and devise an interim plan, as an imperative, to field a 5th gen fighter capability at the earliest.

As a message, that's the foremost Government of India could do to ensure enduring freedom for the nation and every Indian going forward on this Independence Day today...

About the Author: Rajat Narang is the Co-Founder & Partner of Noealt Corporate Services apart from being an A&D Industry Researcher & Specialist, Serial Author and Nuclear, Aviation & Cold-War Historian. For his full bio and list of books authored by him, access his author page on Amazon.com.

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Image Credits: Indian Air Force, usage under GODL-IAF