Ukraine Proves Once Again as to Why Offense is Still One of the Best Forms of Self-Defense

The ongoing war in Ukraine, raging since Russia's invasion on February 22, 2024, has reached some sort of a turning point, after months of a virtual stalemate, with Ukraine giving the aggressor a much needed taste of its very own medicine as well as a long overdue counter-punch in the form of a retaliatory invasion into Russia's Kursk region. The latest onslaught by the Ukrainian forces marks the first time since World War II that Russia has been invaded and the outcomes likely to follow are expected to be nothing short of revolutionary, as history has shown.

In the past, the Mongols and the European empires invaded the Russian homeland and lost out and were defeated comprehensively owing to stretched supply lines and lack of adequate preparedness & acclimatization for the unusually cold & almost inhospitable conditions for survival besides Russia's deep pool of human reserves in Siberia to stage effective counteroffensives. However, this time around, its Ukraine and the Ukrainians are no strangers to the conditions of the region and so far have fought tooth and nails with their Russian counterparts despite of being comprehensively outnumbered, in terms, of troop and equipment strength. The Ukrainian counter invasion of the Kursk region effectively alters the overall calculus and dynamic of the ongoing bitter war between the neighbors as well as rivals.

Firstly, Ukraine's totally unexpected invasion opens a virtual second front in the war which will necessitate a diversion of troops as well as equipment by Russian forces to halt the Ukrainian mechanized forces at the earliest. Russian forces, thus, would be fighting simultaneously at the existing front lines in Eastern Ukraine while defending their very own territory in Kursk which will make their lives even more difficult.

Secondly, Ukraine plans to consolidate the territorial gains made by it so far and hold on to it by establishing defensive lines, seemingly, to use it later for a potential bargain for recovering its own land during potential peace negotiations in the near future. This becomes salient and especially significant in view of what lies ahead, namely, the second Ukraine Peace Summit in September 2024, and emerging uncertainties in the global political landscape led by the upcoming U.S. Presidential Elections in November 2024 casting a shadow of uncertainty over the potential U.S. economic and military aid for Ukraine going forward as Trump has already indicated his preference for a negotiated settlement of the war which is inevitably going to lead to land concessions on the part of Kyiv and latest territorial gains made by Ukraine are going to come in really handy.

The logic behind Kyiv's radical strategy move is sound and is going to have significant and invaluable implications in how the end game plays out in Ukraine. However, all of it is going to be contingent heavily and almost entirely on Ukraine's ability to be able to hold on to the territorial gains already made by it which is going to require a superhuman effort given the asymmetry between the two sides in men as well as material resources. Further, Putin will never flinch from returning to his routine nuclear saber-rattling tactics to check Kyiv from any premature celebrations over its latest gains.

Also, if pushed further to the corner, as Kyiv has already poked the bear in his very own cave; Putin may not even shy away from using his tactical nuclear weapons against Kyiv, just to prove his point and to ultimately have the last word as well as laugh, and if that happens, it will be really unfortunate for the entire world with significant and long term ramifications...

About the Author: Rajat Narang is the Co-Founder & Partner of Noealt Corporate Services apart from being an A&D Industry Researcher & Specialist, Serial Author and Nuclear, Aviation & Cold-War Historian. For his full bio and list of books authored by him, access his author page on Amazon.com.

Image Credits: Reuters