The Siege of Embattled Iran amid the Quest for the Knock-Out Punch – Prognosis, Ramifications and Implications...

After a months long build-up of American Naval forces in the Persian Gulf region, the highly anticipated & expected U.S. military operation against Iran came over the weekend as the ongoing talks & negotiations collapsed and paved way for the onset of the kinetic phase of the conflict, once again after June 2025, thereby, culminating tensions simmering over the past couple of months, in addition, to years of economic sanctions & coercive measures into the breakout of a another direct, Trump-initiated head-on war in the Middle East region almost as a continuation & repeat of last year’s American-Israeli military strikes and Iran’s retaliatory missile launches and reminiscent of the 2003’s Iraq War predicated on a very similar premise.

However, this time around, it’s an altogether different saga and the progression, too, is likely to be very different as the beleaguered Iranian political regime is treating it clearly as an existential war for survival, especially after the killing of its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a decapitating air strike on his residential compound by the American-Israeli fighter jets based on a intelligence top-off by the CIA. The killing has unleashed significant political uncertainty over leadership succession in Iran, in addition, to a shock wave in the Muslim World with the outbreak of public protests at the U.S. Consulate across multiple cities in Pakistan which led to opening of fire by the deployed security troops causing 23 deaths. The death count in Iran, on the contrary, so far, has been 555 lives so far.

Iran’s incumbent regime, too, has vowed massive retaliation and a bitter fight to the very end against the “terrorist aggressors”, which effectively began in form of missile and drone strikes launched against Israel and U.S. military bases in the GCC region besides striking other civilian targets in the region with barrages of Iranian missiles & drones since Saturday, including, Burj Khalifa, Al Jumeira, American embassy in Kuwait, U.S. Naval Forces CENTCOM HQ in Bahrain and even an oil refinery of the Saudi Aramco group earlier today, which had to be shut down temporarily. Thus, the war has effectively disrupted & impacted economic activity in the region, especially for commercial flights, as the threat of missiles & drones looms over airspace with even the world’s busiest airport, the Dubai International Airport (DIA), being closed down over the weekend and scores of flights being cancelled by multiple carriers even today.

The strikes, despite interception by air defences, have so far claimed lives and caused collateral damage with 4 American soldiers and 10 Israeli civilians already reported dead besides reports of 5 civilian casualties also being reported in the neighbouring Gulf States from missile debris and shrapnel injuries another 5 in Syria. Further, 3 American F-15 Eagle fighter jets, too, have been reported to have been downed earlier today owing to friendly fire incidents over Kuwait involving Kuwaiti Air Defence batteries amid the Fog of War while Iran, too, is claiming the hits. Even the headquarters of the U.S. 5th Fleet in Bahrain was hit by drone strikes and sustained damage over the weekend.

In terms of military capabilities, Iran is no Venezuela, as it possesses a sizeable reserve of up to 3000+ ballistic missiles, including its Fattah-2 hypersonic missile with HGV, the onboard hypersonic glide vehicle, capable of reaching a top speed of up to Mach 15 with a range of 1,500 km and its Shahed drones which have been used extensively by Russia in Ukraine to devastating effect. The Fattah-2 can overwhelm air defences with its sheer speed and is capable of even maneuvering mid-flight to effectively evade air defence interceptors. Iran launched the Fattah-2 earlier today and it did maneuver and evaded more than 10 launched interceptor rockets on its way to strike its designated target.

Thus, we are in the very early days of a Trump-initiated unnecessary war in the Middle East driven largely by Trump’s recent high on Venezuela’s swift & lightning quick regime change ops. The war in Iran, however, unlike Venezuela, is likely to escalate further going forward. Iran’s embattled incumbent & unpopular theocratic regime has been in power for over 4 plus decades but is currently teetering on the verge of an economic collapse after enduring American sanctions for years, having militarily eroded after last year’s American & Israeli strikes which dismantled its nuclear weapons program and its vast network of regional proxies, or the ‘Axis of Resistance’, namely, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis; either destroyed or significantly weakened while also facing strong public opposition at home over repression and biting inflation spiralling out of control.

Prognosis: A Protracted Conflict with Regime Change Unlikely or Quick American Retreat with Tactical Objectives Met?

In terms of genesis, it was Trump who actually drew first blood and threw down the gauntlet by scrapping the signed nuclear deal with Iran in 2018 without any obvious triggers or justifiable ground to do so as the IAEA inspectors were actively deployed across Iran's nuclear sites and ensuring compliance. Trump actually perfectly set up Iran over the years for what is unfolding & underway now, in collaboration with Israel.

Thus, it is Iran’s existential war to survive which was being waged for years economically & coercively and has now reached its ultimate kinetic finale & culmination against a global superpower & a regional arch-rival and is unlikely to be limited to a mere skirmish, like in previous instances, and is likely to escalate further and might even conflagrate into an all-out, full-blown regional war, especially with Iran-backed regional proxy groups yet to come into play and full action mode, which has already started, with Hezbollah having launched rockets on Israeli targets earlier today which effectively broke the 2024’s ceasefire between the sides and Israel now retaliating with more air strikes and pummeling of the group’s sites in Lebanon.

The same further complicates the overall strategic calculus of the ongoing war as it may turn into a protracted conflict, which, if happens, will favor Iran significantly in its bid to survive this heavy knock-out punch. Iran is already trying to inflict economic pain and cost on to top American allies in the region, namely, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain by targeting civilian infrastructure, too for missile strikes, in addition, to existing U.S. military bases & assets in the region aimed at creating a spill over effect on the rest of the region, thereby, forcing them to, in turn, pressurize the U.S. & Israel to end their ongoing military campaign against Iran. Thus, the longer it drags out the better it will be for Iran.

In terms of progression, it might turn out to be a tactical success for U.S.-Israel with further erosion of Iranian military capabilities & destruction of defense industrial base which will weaken it further in the region while further bolstering Israel’s already acknowledged hegemony but beyond that, especially a complete political regime change, might be unachievable via airstrikes alone and likely to be a long drawn affair and unlikely eventually without the highly risky & unlikely proposition of putting boots on the ground, which could be Trump's Ukraine moment, and given the Iran-backed proxies are yet to come into full play in retaliation and their capabilities, despite recent degradation, can't be underestimated as experienced by the U.S. Navy firsthand in the Red Sea against the Houthis earlier.

Thus, after inflicting sufficient infrastructural damage & capabilities erosion and achieving tactical objectives, the U.S. & Israel are most likely to retract and choose an exit off-ramp to avoid long-term entanglement with Iran, which, as per Trump, could last almost a month as told by him to media. However, no one can take Trump on face value ever, as has been sufficiently demonstrated since 2016. In case of a protracted conflict, the collateral damage is likely to be heavy which, in turn, is likely to be unacceptable to the Congress as well as the American public, who are already against this military ops, as per the latest media polls run today, especially in the absence of any tangible U.S. objective or interest beyond regime change.

Implications: Oil & Gas Shockwaves for the World, Boost for Nuclear Proliferation and Weakening of Revisionist Axis

The biggest economic impact of the war in the Middle East is likely to be on the global oil & gas markets with Iran having already closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which alone accounts for around a fifth of global oil shipments. The supply disruption of Middle Eastern oil to Asian economies is likely to lead to a surge in crude oil prices which has already spiked to $80 as of today and is projected to lead to a further price increase to $100+ over the coming days. OPEC has already announced a production increase from April, in response, to counter the emerging situation.

Further, in terms of markets, around 80% of Iran’s oil exports currently go to China while they account merely for around 13% of China’s sea-based crude imports. Iran is the third largest oil producer in the OPEC bloc and accounts over almost 4+% of global oil supplies.

The overall impact on China's oil imports from the war, however, is going to be muted & limited going forward as it has built deep strategic reserves over the years and is likely to simply transition to and source more from Russia, much like India, which too, is likely to lean further towards Russian crude again despite Trump’s coercion. Thus, Russia is set to gain economically from the ongoing Iran War with a boost to its oil exports likely while the entire world is set for a series of ripples & oil shocks to be caused by supply disruptions besides higher freight & insurance costs.

Also, QatarEnergy, the region’s largest LNG producer, too, has stopped LNG production earlier today due to Iranian missile strikes which has already led to a 30% surge in European gas prices. A number of oil refineries across the region, too, have temporarily halted oil production. Thus, it will be Russia’s gain vs. Europe’s pain in the energy markets in case of a protracted conflict while Shale oil producers in America are likely to spring into action and increase production as crude prices have already touched the $80 threshold. Further, a revision & downward projection for world economic growth for 2026, too, is highly likely going forward in case of a protracted conflict scenario. So, we all must brace for more headwinds, chaos & economic impact.

Further, Trump’s latest strikes on Iran, especially with Khamenei’s killing, may have also unleashed the very same forces into action which earlier made America the number one enemy of the Muslim World and precipitated 9/11 ultimately. Also, Iran currently already possesses around 450 kg of highly enriched Uranium-235 (HEU) with 60% enrichment which is still capable of being used for making nuclear weapons with the usage of higher fissile materials with a different bomb design and has currently been non-traceable since last year’s strikes. Khamenei was staunchly against nuclear weapons for decades over religious beliefs and his departure may make his likely successor, or in case Republican Guards seize power, to exercise the nuclear option for existential reasons which could be a huge, real & a much bigger threat relatively going forward than its pursuit of nuclear enrichment so far since the end of the nuclear deal in 2018.

Further, America’s actions in Iraq in 2003, against the Qaddafi regime in Libya in 2011 and now against Khamenei in Iran, deliver the core underlying message starkly & absolutely clearly that developing nuclear weapons is the ultimate immunity pin and survival guarantee for any authoritarian regime facing existential threats, as effectively proven by North Korea, which has so far remained clearly out of the reach of America’s long arm despite the imposition of economic sanctions and other coercive measures.

Geopolitically, it will weaken the Axis of Revisionism, comprising China, Russia, North Korea & Iran; which intends to challenge the traditional, U.S. & West-led global order, especially after Russia has already debilitated militarily & economically owing to Putin’s strategic folly and military misadventurism in Ukraine since 2022 which has rendered it in no possible position to meddle in global affairs militarily. Putin may not be able to obtain the degree of industrial production support he has been drawing so far from Iran for missiles & drones.

China, on the contrary, is still in the process of making the transition from a regional to a global power and has, so far, limited its intervention to economic & diplomatic interventions as it is still not fully ready militarily to take-on the American military juggernaut, thereby, providing Trump enough leeway to play the Putin-style Realpolitik on the geopolitical chessboard in the absence of any meaningful international authority in a structurally flawed & deliberately created global regulatory system, led by the United Nations (U.N.), and without any credible counter or balancing force geopolitically or lack of any effective checks & balances on his Presidential authority domestically, despite the presence of the War Powers Act which forces the President to seek Congressional Approval before thrusting the U.S. military into any war globally, except for defending America against any potential external threats or attacks which Iran simply did not pose despite Trump’s claims and rhetoric over Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Further, the war in Iran may also mark the return of America to the very top of the hit list of the radicalized elements & groups in the Muslim world and may lead to return of major terrorist attacks against Israeli & American military bases & assets, embassies & consulates or other public infrastructure in the Middle East region, which was a hallmark of the 1990s decade, (led by Bin Laden and Al Qaeda) going forward. That regression may have already started with the latest drone attack on the American embassy in Riyadh earlier today which killed 6 staffers.

Lastly, Putin went for regime change militarily in Ukraine, his sphere of influence, in 2022 followed by Trump’s copying of the same strategic playbook which resulted in the capturing of Maduro & a quick regime change in Venezuela for oil, and initiation of war against Iran now in the name of neutralizing nuclear threat, which, practically & effectively, doesn’t leave any ideological demarcation between an authoritarian regime in Russia and a democracy in America run by a so called democratically elected leader operating solely on his whims & idiosyncracies with absolute authority, even without Congressional authorization, and it is likely to boost Putin’s cause geopolitically. Further, it has effectively heralded the onset of the era of geopolitical Wild West with survival of the fittest becoming the core, underlying geopolitical mantra currently which is already driving defense spending to unprecedented levels globally.

Trump, thus, is subtly yet effectively turning the world’s oldest democracy into a pseudo-autocracy under him while looking to realize his long cherished dream of being an authoritarian leader with the world’s most powerful & capable military and taxpayer’s money as his instruments of choice, in the absence of any effective Congressional checks & balances on his almost absolute Presidential authority for now after campaigning and getting elected on the promise of peace. He launched airstrikes on 7 nations in 2025 alone, including 3 nations which have never been struck by the U.S. ever before, including Iran, Venezuela & Nigeria; and has launched more strikes in a single year than what President Biden did through his entire 4 year tenure. However, he will be really lucky if he can extract and show up some meaningful & tangible gains for the U.S. from this latest engagement with Iran beyond serving Israeli regional interests.

Thus, it’s high time for the U.S. Congress and the lawmakers to rein in his current absolute authority & ongoing military misadventurism, somehow with legislative measures, lest he will go on a regime change spree going forward which is likely to create further geopolitical disruption & chaos globally and America, as a nation, and the American public may eventually end up reaping the resulting whirlwind created by his military antics, as Trump already has Cuba firmly in his crosshairs as his next target after Iran...

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