Commercial Aviation Strikes Back...

Commercial Aviation’s Flight Path of Resurgence to Pre-Pandemic Levels Spearheaded by Surge in Passenger Traffic amid Continued Supply Side Capacity Constraints

Commercial Aviation’s resurgence has been remarkable over the recent years with passenger traffic and fleet utilization levels growing steadily and surpassing the levels registered in 2019 while airlines’ profitability, too, has steadily inched into the positive zone after years of market carnage and turbulence with the first half of 2024 indicating a clear, sustained momentum for post pandemic recovery. However, aircraft availability, supply chain & MRO capacity constraints and engine durability issues in both narrow and wide body segments pose the biggest downside risks to it. The passenger traffic levels have been surging and are providing the much-required boost to fleet utilization levels across carriers with a better load factor, thereby, boosting passenger revenues & RPKs and adding further to overall productivity & efficiency of operations.

The airlines' profitability, however, continues to be at low-levels albeit growing at a rapid pace and is projected to be marginally better for 2024. On the aircraft OEMs side, the duopoly of Airbus & Boeing cumulatively delivered 1263 commercial aircrafts in 2023, growing by 10.5% year-on-year from 2022. The commercial aircraft deliveries are likely to register YoY growth of almost 6% to 8% for 2024 with Airbus projected to almost reach pre-COVID levels this year. Airbus is, in turn, gunning ambitiously for a production rate of 75 aircrafts per month for the A320neo family in 2027, after having faltered over the same earlier owing to supply chain issues, while it will take another 2-3 years for Boeing to reach its former peak production level cumulatively while facing a plethora of issues ranging from regulatory, financial with rising debt & interest payouts, operational performance across programs to imminent leadership transition.

The boom in passenger traffic on the demand side and prevailing supply side constraints on available capacity, due to the supply chain, are likely to drive-up overall yield & profitability for carriers while simultaneously also boosting MRO demand & activity levels as fleet utilizations surge translating into substantial projected MRO revenues growth for the industry & aftermarket over near term. Further, there is a latent replacement demand in the market owing to ageing fleets with aircraft replacements delayed across multiple markets in the post-pandemic years while emerging markets, led by China & other markets in South & SE Asia, are projected to continue to spearhead fleet growth across regions globally over long term while e-commerce continues to drive the global air cargo market. However, volatility in crude oil price environment, amid continued political conflict & uncertainty in the Middle East region, remains a prominent concern for carriers from a profitability viewpoint.

The global economy, however, is projected to be heading towards a slowdown in 2024 amid continued monetary policy tightening by central banks globally over the recent years to check inflation. The situation has been further exacerbated by sustained geopolitical instability & conflicts across regions, marked by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which continues unabated, and the Israeli military operations in Gaza and dangerous confrontations with Iran & Hezbollah, causing further escalation in tensions and keeping the entire Middle East region as well as the entire world on the edge, thereby, becoming a double whammy for global economic growth which returns to its range-bound, average movement of under 3% annually.

The industry, however, continues to invest towards and undertake measures to move towards net-zero over long term by actively pursuing R&D towards development of sustainable propulsion technologies geared towards reduction of carbon emissions while developing new aircrafts offering a much lower total cost of ownership along with a reduced emissions footprint. Airbus’ A321XLR is scheduled to receive certification and begin with customer deliveries in the second half of 2024 as Airbus further ups the ante in the narrow body and the middle-of-the-market segments while Boeing is clearly jostling with the FAA and other government authorities to somehow keep the 737 MAX program afloat amid a strict cap on production rates on MAX fixed at 38 units monthly by the FAA as efforts are underway to implement additional quality improvement measures to ensure safety with actual production being still below that level. The aviation supply chain, too, is grappling with a series of challenges, including, capacity constraints, skilled workforce shortages and high interest rates, especially at the engine OEMs level, and is, thus, lagging way behind in matching the ambitious, near-term production ramp-up plans being chalked out by the OEMs, which, realistically, are likely to remain a pipe dream over near-term. However, long-term market fundamentals remain bullish with strong aircraft deliveries and fleet growth projections by the industry.

About the Author: Rajat Narang is the Co-Founder & Partner of Noealt Corporate Services apart from being an A&D Industry Researcher & Specialist, Serial Author and Nuclear, Aviation & Cold-War Historian. For his full bio and list of books authored by him, access his author page on Amazon.com.

For more on Commercial Aviation, access our Comprehensive Research Report:

Global Commercial Aircraft Market – 2024-2043 – Market Dynamics, Competitive Landscape, OEMs’ Strategies & Plans, Trends & Growth Strategies and Market Outlook & Forecast

Additionally, also explore our leading Industry book on Commercial Aviation:

Airbus vs. Boeing: Strategy Wars, Tactical Dogfights, High-G Maneuvers and the Photo Finishes - A tour-de-force take on the fabled arch-rivalry between Airbus vs. Boeing decrypting the relative strategy playbooks of the two Transatlantic rivals & aerospace giants from 1970s to 2020.